Revolutionizing · Modernizing · Simplifying
Revolutionizing · Modernizing · Simplifying
Only 3,068 homes closed across metro Denver in August. That is the number that jumps out of the Denver Metro Association of Realtors report that dropped in early September. Down almost 19% from July. Down 17.35% from August of last year. Sales volume dropped 19.45% month over month.
That is not a dip. That is closings falling off a cliff.
And here is the part people miss. The prices did not follow them down. The median close price landed at $594,495. That is off 1.74% from July, sure, but just 0.25% from a year ago. A quarter of one percent. Basically flat.
So you have a market where way fewer people are buying, but the ones who do are paying almost exactly what they paid last summer. That is a weird picture, and DMAR's own Market Trends Committee Chair Amanda Snitker put words to it. She said uncertainty has dominated the conversation but it has not translated into real instability. Which is a nice way of saying everybody is nervous and nobody is capitulating.
Look at the inventory. There were 13,080 active homes on the market at the end of August. Down 0.27% from July. Up 0.16% from a year ago. Those numbers are so flat they might as well be the same number three times.
That is the tell. If sellers were scared, you would see listings pile up. They are not piling up. People are just sitting. If they do not have to move, they are not moving, and part of the reason is sitting in your mortgage math. As of September 9, one national tracker pegged Colorado's average 30-year fixed at 6.69% APR, and another had it at 6.97%. Either way, rates are running about 57 basis points higher than they were a year ago. Anybody who locked in during the cheap-money years is not trading that in for a 7% loan unless life forces the issue.
Buyers did get one thing this month though. Time. Median days in the MLS climbed from 21 in July to 27 in August. Six extra days does not sound like much, but it is the difference between writing an offer in a panic and actually sleeping on it. That is room to negotiate, and if you are shopping right now, use it.
Here is where the split screen gets loud, because "the Denver market" is really two markets wearing one jersey.
If you own a detached single-family house, you are basically fine. The median detached price came in at $649,500, essentially unchanged from a year ago. Corcoran Perry & Co. figures put detached homes at right around three months of inventory. Three months is still a seller's market, or close to it. Houses with a yard and a garage are holding their value like nothing happened.
Condos and townhomes are a completely different animal. The median attached price was $370,000, down 4.87% year over year. And attached listings jumped 9.94% over the year, so more of them are hitting the market at the same time buyers are backing off. Those same Corcoran Perry numbers show attached inventory stretching toward roughly six months of supply. Six months is the textbook line for a buyer's market. So if you are trying to sell a condo in Denver right now, you are competing against a lot more listings and softer prices. If you are trying to buy one, this is your moment. That does not happen often here.
I mean, think about the person who bought a downtown condo three or four years ago figuring it would appreciate like the house down the street. It did not. The detached house did. Same city, two different outcomes.
DMAR is not the only source telling this story. REcolorado's August report logged 13,211 active listings, about 18 weeks of supply, with 4,892 new listings coming on (up 4% from last August). But pending listings dropped 7% year over year to 3,341, and closed listings fell 13% to 3,118. Their median days in the MLS sat at 29. Different dataset, same shape. Lots of homes, fewer deals actually getting done.
And it is not just the for-sale side cooling off. The rental market softened too. REcolorado reported the median leased price essentially flat at
If you own a detached house, you are in good shape and there is no fire to sell into. Your value is holding.
If you own a condo or townhome, know your competition. There are a lot of listings out there and prices are drifting down, so price it right the first time or watch it sit.
And if you are a buyer, especially a condo buyer, this is the most negotiating leverage Denver has handed you in a while. Extra days on market, six months of attached supply, sellers who cannot count on a bidding war. That is your opening.
The market did not crash. It stalled. There is a difference, and knowing which side of the detached-versus-attached line you are standing on is the whole game right now. If you want to run your own address through the actual numbers, that is exactly the kind of thing we do at Symbio Homes, no pressure attached.