Revolutionizing · Modernizing · Simplifying
Revolutionizing · Modernizing · Simplifying
Two sets of numbers landed this month and they do not agree with each other at all.
Here is the first one. Metro Denver closed just 2,849 homes in September. That is down about 21% from a year ago, and it is the fewest for any September since 2008. Thirteen thousand five hundred and sixty seven homes are sitting on the market right now, waiting. Freddie Mac had the 30-year fixed near 7.28% on October 1, and that number is doing exactly what you think it is doing. It is parking the mid-market buyer on the couch.
And here is the second one. New listings for homes a million dollars and up jumped 12.15% from August to September. Luxury closings actually rose nearly 2%. And those million-dollar-plus homes are selling in a median of 21 days, while the broader market drags along at 32.
So the top of the market and everybody else are living on two different planets right now. That is the real story, and most people scrolling past the headlines are only seeing the gloomy half.
This is the part people miss. The buyer at seven-and-a-quarter percent interest and the buyer at the top are not the same person, and they are not making the same math.
Mortgage rates only matter if you need a mortgage. A big chunk of the luxury crowd is cash-heavy, so a rate near 7.28% is background noise to them. It is a headline they read, not a payment they feel. That is why the segment kept transacting while the middle froze up.
Michelle Schwinghammer, a Metro Denver realtor and a committee member with the Denver Metro Association of Realtors, put it about as plainly as you can. The luxury segment, she said, "isn't waiting for conditions to improve." It is "capitalizing on the opportunities already in front of it."
Read that again, because it is basically the whole month in one sentence. Everyone else is waiting for rates to blink. The luxury buyer already decided they are not waiting.
Year to date through September, Denver-area sales over a million dollars are up 2%. That is 4,449 closings and $7.30 billion in volume. And the top residential sale of the year so far is 31 Albion Place in Castle Rock, which went for $7.4 million. So this is not a handful of trophy deals. It is a steady, quiet stack of them.
So what are these listings? 5280's monthly Hot Properties column, written by Rebecca Bratburd, ran four of them on October 23, and honestly the spread between them tells you more than any chart.
Start at the top. 2408 S. Monroe Street in University Park. An elevated, modern Tudor-inspired place asking $4.75 million, listed by The Hoholik Team with a Denver brokerage. University Park is one of those pockets near DU where the lots are generous and the money is old and quiet, and a Tudor done in a modern hand is exactly the kind of thing that moves in 21 days instead of 32.
Then go downtown. 1750 Wewatta Street, unit 1934. A Union Station penthouse asking $3.1 million, listed by Joy Van Gilder of Slifer Smith & Frampton. This is the lock-it-and-leave crowd. No yard, no snow to shovel, just the train hall and the restaurants out your front door. Different buyer than the Tudor, same tax bracket.
Head into the hills. 4600 Forest Hill Road in Evergreen, a modern mountain retreat at
And then the one I keep thinking about. 4719 Beaver Ridge in Elbert. A vintage log cabin asking $634,999, listed by Courtney Trembly of a Denver brokerage. Now, $634K is not a luxury number by the million-dollar definition. But stick it next to a $4.75 million Tudor in the same column and you see the whole Front Range in one glance. A log cabin out past Elizabeth and a modern penthouse over Union Station are both somebody's version of the dream right now, and both are for sale this month.
(Side note. A vintage log cabin on a ridge in Elbert for the price of a dated townhome closer in. That is dangerous for me. Hayley already knows that look on my face.)
If you are selling at the top, the window is open and it is open now. New luxury listings jumped double digits for a reason. Sellers read the 21-day median and did the math.
If you are a buyer under a million and watching rates, you are not crazy to wait, but understand what you are waiting inside of. Thirteen thousand five hundred homes on the market and the slowest September in eighteen years means you have leverage that the luxury buyer does not have. Use it. Ask for the rate buydown. Ask for the repairs. In a market this slow, a motivated seller will listen in a way they would not have two years ago.
And if you are just gawking at a $4.75 million Tudor on your lunch break, no judgment. That is half of why we do this.
The one line to walk away with is Schwinghammer's. The top of the market is not waiting for conditions to improve. Whether you can afford to do the same is the real question under all of it.